Dr. Richard Duncan has developed an extensive model of the coming Global Hubbert Peak, Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method, using Stella® modeling software. Based on his investigations, he has proposed The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization. Dr. Duncan reminds us of the fragility of our energy infrastructure. Following are links to several of his papers and letters. >

  • The Olduvai Theory. Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization, in The Social Contract [2005-2006 Winter]
    "The Olduvai Theory states that the life expectancy of industrial civilization is approximately 100 years: circa 1930-2030. Energy production per capita (e) defines it. The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970... Average e will show no growth from 1979 through circa 2008 ... The rate of change of e will go steeply negative circa 2008 ... World population will decline to about two billion circa 2050 ... A growing number of independent studies concur...."

  • Hoovervilles and Bush Camps [September 22, 2001]
    "I presented the forecast, 'The Road Ahead' ... as a thought experiment in my paper, 'Crude Oil Production and Prices: A Look Ahead at OPEC's Decision Making Process,' .... at the Petroleum Technology Transfer Council (PTTC) in Bakersfield, California on September 22, 2000 -- exactly six (6) days before the latest wave of violence erupted in Jerusalem on September 28, 2000. The 'Jerusalem Jihad' (JJ) I call it.

    "While recently reviewing SCENARIO #1 with a colleague, I was amazed at its accuracy and precision...."

  • World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge [600k pdf] [or html], as published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5. (with appreciation to Jay Hanson)

  • USGS Assessment 2000. This is a review of some of strengths and weaknesses of the USGS 2000 Report. Briefly put: Despite its shortcomings... it is an innovative and potentially very useful document.

  • The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Pardee Keynote Symposia Geological Society of America, Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2000

  • In a letter to President Clinton, Dr. Duncan describes a critical issue that emerged at the May 8-11, 1997 Princeton Space Studies Institute (SSI) conference regarding the Looming Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Countries (“AMPEC”)

  • World Petroleum “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle: Encircling the Production Peak.“

  • Mexico's Petroleum Exports: Safe Collateral for a $50 Billion Loan? >

    Dr. Duncan has graciously offered his Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method/World Oil Forecasting Program to interested parties. These models run under Stella® which is available from isee systems. You may obtain a full operating copy of Stella, or rely on their free Player or inexpensive Run-Time module which allow you to use Dr. Duncan's model with limited Stella® functionality.

    "isee Runtime is designed as a presentation tool, showcasing models in a full-screen mode and allowing model authors more control over what end-users see and the functionality available. isee Player, on the other hand, is a read-only version of the STELLA or iThink modeling software. Using isee Player, you have access to toolbars, menus and all model layers but with restricted edit capabilities."

    Stella templates of Dr. Duncan's models are available for the world and countries combined in regional models for:

    ... or download all of the files at once:

    These models are combined to create an integrated model of the seven regions of the World.