... [E]ven if only modest withdrawals are required this month, we are still likely to end the heating season with the total level of gas in storage below the previous low recorded by EIA. In our view, only a spectacular performance from the U.S. and Canadian gas industry in terms of increased production or an extremely mild summer this year would generate much in the way of additional reductions in natural gas prices beyond what has already happened since mid winter. As we currently expect working gas to reach 689 billion cubic feet at end-March, seasonal injections of 2,310 billion cubic feet would be required from April through October to reach 3 trillion cubic feet (the approximate average end-October level between 1995 and 1999) before the next heating season. That kind of build would be about 500 billion cubic feet (25 percent) above average (1995-1999). Consequently we expect the industry to fall well short. Average monthly gas spot prices below $4 per thousand cubic feet between now and next winter are possible but do not seem very likely under these circumstances. [EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2001]