Forecast of Future Oil Output

Production Scenarios

This graph (often referred to as the "Hubbert Curve,") is based on an Ultimate Recovery of conventional oil of 1750 Gb (Giga = Billion barrels), and depicts alternative scenarios of production. The Swing Case assumes a price leap when the share of world production from a few Middle East countries reaches 30%. This is expected to curb demand, leading to a plateau of output until the Swing countries reach the midpoint of their depletion, when resource constraints force down output at the then depletion rate. [from The Twenty First Century, The World's Endowment of Conventional Oil and its Depletion, by Dr. Colin Campbell, 1996]

Conventional, NGL and Non-Conventional

This graph is based on an Ultimate Recovery of liquids (conventional oil plus natural gas liquids) of 2000 Gb and Non-Conventional oil of 750 Gb. [from Dr. Jean Laherrère, 2000]

Oil and Population
Taking it one more step, the ultimate outcome of an energy policy based on oil is the decline of the human population. [See Future sources of crude oil supply, Figure 20].

updated 2000 March 1